Bitcoin is not ‘overbought’, may reach $75,000 price before current bull cycle ends, says research

Even as bitcoin (BTC) is fast approaching resistance, it remains several tens of thousands of dollars away from entering into “overbought” territory, said a report by the US-based cryptocurrency exchange Kraken published in February 2021. Kraken, among the world’s largest and oldest bitcoin exchanges, noted that bitcoin price may gain much higher before the current bull market ends based on historical price movements. “if bitcoin were to surpass $75,000 in the coming few months, historical price action suggests that the digital currency would then be close to the top of the cycle,” it said.

Bitcoin’s price has declined from its all-time high of more than $58,000 per coin as of February 21 even as it managed to finish the month 37 per cent higher and outperform its peers. Bitcoin was up 66 per cent year-to-date as of Sunday as it traded at $48,912, according to the data from CoinMarketCap, at the time of filing this report.

Bitcoin is now trending in a manner most similar to the first quarter of 2013, which was its best first quarter on record. However, if the trend continues, the January-March quarter of 2021 could be a “historic quarter with a relatively outsized return,” Kraken said.

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“By plotting a logarithmic growth curve that connects BTC’s prior market cycle tops (resistance) and bottoms (support) and by making assumptions about how severe BTC will correct upon hitting a cycle high, one will find that BTC likely has plenty of upside left before entering a bear market.”

Importantly, Kraken CEO Jesse Powell had told Bloomberg earlier this week that he expects bitcoin to hit $1-million mark within the next decade. “In the near term, people see it surpassing gold as a store of value, so I think a million dollars as a price target within the next 10 years is very reasonable,” he said. Bitcoin’s market cap had peaked to $1.08 trillion on February 22 before it contracted to $811 billion on February 28. The value stood at $920 billion, at the time of filing this report.