Markets fall despite government’s fresh stimulus package, Goldman upgrade

Shrugging off the government’s fresh stimulus package as also an upgrade by Goldman Sachs, the Sensex and Nifty on Thursday reversed their eight-session winning streak.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a report they were raising India to ‘overweight’. They expect corporate profits to rebound 27% next year and a further 21% in 2022, after an expected decline of 11% this year.

“While valuations remain extended and could see some pressure, we expect further market gains driven by earnings recovery and expect NIFTY to reach 14100 by end 2021 which implies 15% upside from current levels,” they wrote.

The brokerage said the investment case for India has improved.

“First, India has been a laggard this year underperforming the region by 11 pp in USD terms. As we noted in our recent report, Indian equities are most positively sensitive to the improving prospects of a vaccine, and so we expect a ‘catch up’ laggard rally given the positive news flow on the vaccine front (which could spur faster than expected recovery). More importantly, on the fundamental side, the domestic macro recovery is underway as suggested by pick up in high frequency activity data points”, the analysts said.

GS economists expect real GDP growth to rebound to 10% and 7.2% over the next two years versus an expected -9% this calendar year.