Both Trinamool and the BJP have a minimum support base across the state now. Only in a few seats, both the parties are in a position to win on the basis of their own organisational strength. Otherwise, in most cases, results depend on the switch in the last moment of the floating voters who decide on local and other issues. In the 2019 general elections, BJP benefitted from a huge shift of floating voters ranging from 15 to 20 per cent. They mostly belonged to the CPI(M) and the Congress, now even if half of them return to the alliance, BJP will be in trouble.
Two recent developments which have also gone against the BJP. The campaign of farmer leaders like Rakesh Tikait in Bengal in the last few days has made a dent in BJP’s and the PM’s image. Tikait candidly called upon farmers to vote against the BJP.
Muslims comprise 27 per cent of the voters in Bengal. A big shift to ISF of Abbas Siddiqui is sure to go against Trinamool, but field reports show that is not happening. There will be some shift from Trinamool but that will be miniscule and there will be broad consolidation of minority voters behind the Chief Minister. Similarly, the women empowerment will go against BJP in Bengal elections. The schemes introduced by CM have given immense benefit to women, especially the health scheme. The women are the head and this made huge impact. The BJP will find it difficult to ignore them just talking about corruption.
With the date of polling coming closer, BJP leadership is faced with hard realities on the ground. Its performance will depend on how the party tackles them. Just money power and muscle power may not be able to achieve success. (IPA Service)
