1.Trinamool polled 43.6% votes in the 2019 general election in the state and was ahead in 164 assembly constituencies. The BJP on the other hand had polled 40.5% of the votes and had led in 121 seats.The difference was 3.1%. Judging by opinion polls released in February, the difference in vote share between AITC and BJP is still between four and five percent. If this holds on eight polling days in April and May, AITC may well bag 180 seats. But then electoral numbers and politics are rarely that simple.
2. Media hype is that it is a direct fight between AITC & BJP. In reality, Left and Congress are still formidable forces in Bengal. Their supporters are however divided in their perception of the main political enemy. While party leaders see Mamata Banerjee as their main enemy in the state, many supporters and even some leaders like the former LF chief minister of Tripura Manik Sarkar believe BJP is the real threat and must be stopped at any cost.
In the last Lok Sabha elections, Left and Congress had bagged just 9 seats without an alliance as opposed to 18 by BJP. In the 2016 Assembly polls, however, Congress and the Left entered into an alliance and bagged 77 seats in the Assembly. They would be hoping that the alliance would hold on the ground and do the trick. But then the attendance at Brigade Parade ground in Kolkata on Sunday is no indication of support by voters. The Left Front had organized equally massive rallies at the same ground in 2016 as well as in 2019.
